2022 AFC Wild Card preview: (7) Steelers vs. (2) Chiefs
Michael Manny previews the AFC Wild Card matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs
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The day after Christmas, the Pittsburgh Steelers played one of their worst games of the season on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, losing 36-10. The game got so ugly in the fourth quarter that CBS switched over to the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos game, only for quarterback Derek Carr to take a knee and run out the clock.
With the team sitting at 7-7-1, it looked like Steelers future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s 18-year career would come to an anticlimactic end.
Instead, the Steelers clinched a playoff spot and will travel to Arrowhead Stadium for the second time this season for a rematch with the Chiefs in the AFC wild card on Jan. 16.
The fact that the Steelers are in the playoffs at all is remarkable — but the more improbable part is how they got in.
To clinch a spot, the Steelers needed to beat the division rival Baltimore Ravens in Week 18. They also needed the Indianapolis Colts to lose to the 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers to not tie. If the two teams tied, both would make the playoffs, and the Steelers would be out.
The Colts ended up being dominated by the Jaguars 26-11, their seventh straight loss in Jacksonville. So far, so good.
Up 29-14 with 8:23 to go, it looked like the Raiders were in control, until the Chargers scored two touchdowns in the final 4:28 of regulation to tie the game. In overtime, both teams matched each other. As time expired, Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson nailed a 47-yard field goal to avoid the tie.
Even Roethlisberger was brutally honest about his team to the media this week.
“We haven’t discussed it, but I would assume as a group you understand that you know we probably aren’t supposed to be here,” Roethlisberger said. “We’re probably not a very good football team, 14 teams I think are in, we’re probably No. 14. We’re double-digit underdogs in the playoffs, so let’s go play and have fun and see what happens.”
Patrick Mahomes tore through the league his first three seasons as a starter, but he and the Chiefs had a pedestrian start to the season. After throwing just six interceptions in all of 2020, and five in 2019, Mahomes threw eight in the first six games of this season alone, as the team started 3-3.
The team got back on the right track, winning eight in a row and nine of their final 10 games. Behind a rebuilt offensive line anchored by left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and rookie center Creed Humphrey, Mahomes finished with a 37/13 touchdown/interception ratio. Humphrey, a second-round-pick, was ranked by Pro Football Focus as the league’s top center.
The defense has been rejuvenated after the unit allowed 30 or more points in four of the first five games (they allowed 29 in week 1). From Week 6 on, they allowed 17 points or fewer in eight of the final 12 games of the regular season.
Melvin Ingram has been a jolt to the pass rush since being acquired, ironically, from the Steelers midseason. in the regular season finale against the Broncos, Ingram blew up former teammate Melvin Gordon to force a fumble, which Nick Bolton picked up and ran back for the score.
Something to keep an eye on for Kansas City going into the playoffs is wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s health. Hill was recovering from COVID-19 prior to the two teams’ first matchup, and has been dealing with a heel injury he suffered before last week’s game in Denver. He is expected to play, according to head coach Andy Reid.
For Pittsburgh to have a shot at upsetting the back-to-back AFC champions, they will need a big game from rookie running back Najee Harris. Running behind an average offensive line, Harris finished with 1,200 yards on the ground and seven scores, to go with 74 receptions and three receiving touchdowns.
In Pittsburgh’s first matchup with the Chiefs, Harris ran for 93 yards on 19 carries, but the offense struggled to move down the field.
The 39-year-old Roethlisberger can still make the occasional big play downfield, but his 6.2 yards-per-attempt this season is the second-lowest of his career behind 2019, when he played in only two games. He threw for 159 yards, a touchdown and interception in the last matchup.
Pittsburgh’s defensive unit excelled at getting to the quarterback, leading the league in sacks, with 55 total. Outside linebacker T.J. Watt tied Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record (22.5) and Cameron Heyward had 10 total. The problem is, the unit has been inconsistent as a whole. The team is 24th in the league in yards allowed per game and total yards and is ranked last in rush defense.
Ben Roethlisberger may have one more clutch performance in him, but Kansas City’s offensive weapons and the improvement of their defense may be too much for the Steelers to overcome.
Prediction: Steelers 13 - Chiefs 35