2022 NBA Western Conference Finals preview - Warriors vs. Mavericks
Brenden Martin previews the 2022 NBA Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks.
For the first time since 2011, neither the No. 1 or No. 2 seeded teams made it to the Western Conference Finals as No. 3 Golden State Warriors (53-29) face off against the rising No. 4 Dallas Mavericks (52-30).
Oddly enough, 2011 was also the last time the Mavericks won an NBA Championship by defeating a LeBron James-led Miami Heat super team in six games in the NBA Finals.
Going into this year’s conference finals, the Mavericks are fresh off what is largely considered the most-lopsided Game 7 performance in NBA history, defeating the No. 1 Phoenix Suns (64-18) by 33 points, 123-90. Up against the team with the best record in the NBA, the Mavericks dismantled the Suns thanks to lights-out shooting from star guard Luka Dončić, who scored 35 points along with grabbing 10 rebounds.
It doesn’t take an aficionado to know that the Mavericks will need to run through Dončić if they have a chance of going back to the Finals. This postseason, Dončić is averaging 31.5 points per game, 10.1 rebounds per game and 6.6 assists per game. He was the leading scorer for the Mavericks in six of the seven games against the Suns in the semifinals.
How heavily Dallas depends on Dončić will determine how hard they can push against a Golden State team that is as healthy as its been since rolling to five consecutive NBA Finals in the 2010s.
Halfway through this postseason, Dončić’s usage rate is the eighth-highest in playoff history at 37.4%. His use has been high throughout his career. In 2020, Dončić’s usage rate was 36.8%, good for 10th all-time. In 2021, Dončić’s usage rate dipped slightly to 36%, still good for 16th all-time.
While being the clear focal point for Dallas for years now, Dončić finally has a solid supporting cast behind him.
Guard Spencer Dinwiddie, acquired via a trade with the Washington Wizards this season, proved to be a solid option when Dončić was off the floor in Game 7 against Phoenix by scoring 30 points in 25 minutes off the bench on 11-for-15 shooting and going 5-for-7 from deep.
Golden State will have quite the time trying to neutralize Dončić, and will likely need to give him different looks on defense to do so. The Warriors have a few options to match up against Dončić on the defensive end and will likely switch between a handful of them.
A likely matchup could be putting former Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green on him. Green, known for his defensive capabilities, could put pressure on Dončić if tries to drive to the rim. However, Dončić is known to operate in the perimeter. Putting Green out there against Dončić could leave the post wide open for Dončić to drive to or to lob to Dallas bigs such as center Dwight Powell or power forward Maxi Kleber.
On the perimeter, forward Andrew Wiggins has the height and length to force Dončić to take tough shots, but the Slovenian legend has proven he can hit the most difficult of shots.
A problem the Warriors ran into in their semifinal series against the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (56-26) was the loss of guard Gary Payton II, who fractured his left elbow (dominant side) after getting hit in the head by Grizzlies guard Dillon Brooks and trying to break his fall at the start of Game 2.
Payton II was initially expected to be out for three to four weeks after injury. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said it is a possibility that he could return for the end of the series, but it would be a long shot.
Payton II could have been the solution for who could guard Dončić from half-court or beyond. However, with or without him, Dončić could very easily average over 30 points a game in this series and that is the expectation at this point. While Dončić does his usual Dončić stuff, it is up to Golden State to limit Dallas’ supporting cast of Dinwiddie, guard Jalen Brunson and forward Dorian Finney-Smith.
The Warriors are back to their winning ways, making it to their first conference finals since 2019 when they defeated the Portland Trail Blazers. At a time before guard Klay Thompson tore his ACL in the Finals that season against the Toronto Raptors, the Golden State dynasty looked unstoppable. Now, with Thompson back, this team has by far the most championship experience left in the playoffs.
Questions about Thompson coming off of two major leg injuries had people wondering how he would look late in a series. He answered all those questions by transforming back into “Game 6 Klay” in the closeout game against the Grizzlies. Thompson dropped 30 points and went 8-for-14 from beyond the arc.
If the Warriors championship trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green continue to play like they have this season and in seasons past, another championship appearance could be in their future.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors in six
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